North Carolina Senate Race Preview: The Forgotten Contest That May Determine Control Of The Senate
RATING: Toss Up
While other Senate races such as Maine and Arizona have received more attention, perhaps no Senate contest will be more consequential than North Carolina. With Democrats needing a net gain of +4 seats to win back control of the Senate, they will need to win any contest that they possibly can. A few conceivable paths have emerged for Democrats to regain control of the Senate but none of these paths can exist without winning North Carolina.
Democrats knew of the stakes going into the 2020 Primary and made sure their preferred candidate Cal Cunningham would be the party’s nominee. Republicans in return will be running incumbent Senator Thom Tillis as their standard bearer. Neither candidate is very well-known nationally and this may be the reason for the relative lack of attention paid to the race. Maine’s Senate race after all features Republican Susan Collins, who has become something of a bogeywoman to progressives, and Arizona Democrats will nominate well-known former Astronaut Mark Kelly as their candidate. Both Collins and Kelly are household names across the country while neither Cunningham or Tillis are particularly well-known nationally.
The lack of notoriety for the North Carolina Senate race is reflected in its fundraising. Thom Tillis, as of March 31st, had raised $11.2 million, while Cunningham raised just under $7.5 million. While these totals may seem solid, they pale in comparison to what has been raised in Maine and Arizona. In Arizona, Mark Kelly has raised a staggering $31 million just by himself. Meanwhile, in Maine, Susan Collins and her Democratic challenger Sara Gideon have each raised over $13 million. For reference, Maine contains just 1/8 the population of North Carolina but both Collins and Gideon have outraised their North Carolina counterparts.
Perhaps another reason why fundraising has been relatively poor is because party leaders likely believe that the Senate race will go the way of the Presidential race. With limited resources, neither party may see the worth in propping up a Senatorial candidate who will win or lose based on the fortune of their Presidential candidate. Neither candidate has truly stuck out on the national stage which has limited their fundraising among smaller donors also.
It is somewhat mind-boggling that neither party has seized the initiative in North Carolina despite the weak fundraising numbers by each candidate. Especially with Presidential, Gubernatorial and Senate races all taking place in North Carolina, in 2020, it would serve both parties well to heavily invest in the Tar Heel State.
If Cal Cunningham is to stand out, he will have to contrast his military experience with that of Tillis. Cunningham served as a Lieutenant Colonel in the Iraq War and Afghanistan, while Tillis never served in the military. In a state that contains approximately 130,000 military personnel, including the enormous Army base of Fort Bragg, Cunningham’s military experience could prove beneficial. Cunningham is also running on a health care platform that is somewhat similar to Pete Buttigieg’s “Medicare For All Who Want It” plan. While this position will not garner him much support or donations among the more progressive elements of the Democratic party, Cunningham’s more centrist position lines up fairly well with the current makeup of North Carolina.
Polling has indicated that the race is very tight, and Cunningham will have an opportunity to parlay his centrist image into votes among independents and swing voters. Cunningham may also be able to take advantage of his opponent’s lack of independence from Donald Trump. Thom Tillis has been a reliable vote and voice for Donald Trump throughout his Presidency and he will almost certainly maintain his pro-Trump views throughout the campaign. It is imperative that Cunningham differentiate himself by creating a perceived sense of independence from the Democrats. If Cunningham can develop his own personal and independent brand by election day then his chances of getting elected will be greatly boosted. Obviously, Cunningham will also be hoping that the national mood against Trump turns south and in turn drags down Tillis.
Thom Tillis is the definition of average Republican when it comes to partisanship and ideology in the Senate. He is a staunch conservative who has consistently defended Donald Trump and even changed his positions a few times to boost the President. In 2019, Tillis initially opposed Donald Trump’s proposed emergency declaration to use funds from the Department of Defense to build a border wall. Under pressure from Trump and fellow Republicans, however, Tillis changed his mind and voted in favor of Trump’s declaration.
Tillis is also pro-life, opposes minimum wage and maintains an A+ rating with the NRA. If you are a pro-Trump Republican, there is little to complain about on the surface with Tillis. There has been some discontent among Conservatives regarding Tillis’ penchant for flip-flopping, but there is little chance that these North Carolina Republicans decide to stay at home or vote for Cunningham as a result. Now that the North Carolina Primary is over, Tillis should have the full backing of Republicans in the state. Due to his flip-flops, however, Tillis will face some difficulties in winning over the votes of independents and swing voters.
It will be up to Tillis to convince these voters that he is a more reliable candidate than Cunningham. Tillis has so far decided to run in the slip stream of Donald Trump with the hope that the President’s coattails will help pull him across the line. In a state that is slightly more Republican than the norm, this is a solid strategy and gives Tillis a slight advantage going into November. If Trump were to struggle nationally, however, then the national tide could wipe out Tillis as well. Tying yourself to Trump has benefits, but Tillis is sacrificing the opportunity to create his own brand of politics in order to share in the fortunes of Trump.
The ultimate results of the North Carolina Senate race are likely to be a near perfect mirror to that of the Presidential race. In 2016, Trump defeated Hillary Clinton by a margin of 49.8% to 46.2% in North Carolina, while Republican Richard Burr defeated Democrat Deborah Ross in the Senate race by a similar margin of 51.1% to 45.4%. There is likely to be very little ticket splitting between the 2020 Presidential and Senate races in North Carolina.
Donald Trump will be the most important figure on the North Carolina Senate race despite not being physically on the ballot himself. Both candidates will almost certainly tie themselves to their respective presidential candidate at the hip because they know their fortunes are essentially at the mercy of the Presidential race. An election under these fundamentals will slightly favor Tillis due to North Carolina’s Republican lean. The race should still be considered a toss-up, but going into the summer of 2020, Tillis does maintain a very small advantage in North Carolina. It is undeniable how critical North Carolina’s Senate race will be. Whoever wins this race may decide which party controls the Senate chamber beginning in 2021.